November 6, 2025
Article from Business Insider by Samuel O’Brient
Article Synopsis
Ray Dalio is warning that the U.S. economy is entering the final phase of the “big debt cycle,” driven by soaring national debt, heavy deficit spending, and the Fed’s shift toward easier monetary policy. He argues that lower rates could trigger a late-stage liquidity “melt-up” — similar to 1999 or 2010–2011 — pushing markets, especially tech and AI stocks, to even loftier valuations before a bubble ultimately bursts.
Dalio believes this surge would be short-lived and eventually restrained by renewed tightening to control inflation. When conditions shift, he expects tangible asset companies — including miners and other real-asset producers — to outperform long-duration tech.
