June 21, 2025
Article from Business Insider by Christine Ji
Article Synopsis
Peter Berezin of BCA Research is maintaining a bearish outlook on the U.S. economy, predicting a 60% chance of recession in 2025 and a potential 25% drop in the S&P 500 to around 4,500. Despite a temporary pause in tariffs by Trump, Berezin remains concerned about trade uncertainty, rising consumer debt, a weakening labor market, and a slowing housing sector.He warns that current tariff levels (around 15%) are still harmful and could rise further, especially if Trump targets industries like pharmaceuticals or semiconductors. While some hope Trump’s tax bill will help, Berezin argues it may worsen the deficit and raise bond yields, offsetting any benefits. He believes only a market downturn could push Trump to ease tariffs further.
