Recession in 2024? A quarter of economists think it will happen.

The U.S. economy exhibited strong growth in the latter half of 2023, and despite its continued resilience, a quarter of business economists still anticipate a recession in 2024. However, economists are generally more optimistic now than they were a year ago, partly due to concerns about the Federal Reserve jacking up a key short-term interest rate to a 23-year high to combat inflation. Economists are also wary of potential external shocks, such as a Chinese economic downturn or Middle East conflicts.

However, overall, economists remain relatively positive, buoyed by recent robust GDP growth and expectations of a Fed interest rate cut due to slowing inflation. Despite this, most economists doubt inflation will reach the Fed’s 2% target by year-end, with many expecting it to stabilize around 2.5%.