Veteran economist Nancy Lazar warns of a high probability of a recession that will significantly impact consumers, companies, and stocks. In an interview, Lazar, Piper Sandler’s Chief Global Economist, attributed the looming downturn to the delayed effects of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hikes and tightened credit conditions.
Lazar pointed out multiple indicators of economic distress. She observed that 19 US states, which make up 40% of the national GDP, experienced at least a 0.5 percentage point rise in their average unemployment over three months. She noted that historically when this many states see significant joblessness increases, a nationwide recession has followed.