The Shiller CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings) ratio is a way to judge whether the stock market looks expensive or cheap based on its long-term earnings power. It takes today's index level (often the S&P 500) and divides it by the average of the last 10 years of company earnings after adjusting those earnings for inflation, which smooths out recessions, booms, and one-off shocks so you get a more stable picture of valuation over a full cycle.
Developed and popularized by Yale economist and Nobel laureate Robert Shiller, the ratio is designed to provide a more stable view of valuation than a standard trailing P/E that only looks at the last 12 months. Investors use the Shiller CAPE as a long-term "thermometer" for market valuation and risk, not as a short-term trading signal. When the ratio sits far above its historical norm, it suggests prices are rich and future long-run returns may be lower and more volatile; when it is well below average, it suggests prices are relatively cheap and long-run returns may be higher as valuations normalize over time.
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